United Kingdom – 2024

Background

The twin effects of COVID-19 and a last-minute Brexit deal that satisfied no-one has polarised and divided British politics like no time before it. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s solemn promise to ‘Get Brexit Done’ was sufficient to hand him an 80-seat majority in parliament, which very quickly looked insecure with the triumvirate of the shambolic handling of the pandemic, the Russia Report, and good, old-fashioned sleaze and corruption.

Even so, it’s no simple task for a more centrist Labour under Sir Keir Starmer to boot the Conservatives out of office, despite the latter party’s abysmal popularity. Once a heartland, Scotland has increasingly become a single-party state in both Holyrood and Westminster.

SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to agitate for a second referendum (especially post-Brexit) in order to rejoin the EU. In Wales, Plaid Cymru under Adam Price have been taking a similarly populist stance, and despite the principality voting with England to leave the EU, what was once a dormant and distant dream for independence has become a very real prospect. The two leaders, already on friendly terms, coordinate their efforts to ensure the UK election as a whole results in a hung parliament, thereby strengthening their collective hand.

The Brexit Party, their sole purpose fulfilled, have morphed into The Reform Party. Nigel Farage managed to agree a formal pact with Johnson that didn’t transpire on equal terms in 2019.

The Liberal Democrats, revived under the charismatic Layla Moran, reached out to Labour as one of her first acts in power that went much further than the ‘understanding’ enjoyed by Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown in the run-up to the 1997 landslide. Despite their low base of seats, Starmer was shrewd enough to understand he needed both the Lib Dems’ and Greens’ support to make the numbers stack up. The price for coalition was PR to once and for all bring the UK into the 21st Century, becoming a truly pluralistic, representative democracy in the process.

Usually out of sight and out of mind, the battles in Northern Ireland take much more centre stage than usual, with calls for a border poll to reunite with the south. With only Sinn Féin unaffiliated with one of the duopolies, every single seat will matter in the ultimate struggle for supremacy!

Notes

I have changed every single aspect from the base file of 2019, except the constituencies and Endorsers. If you have any suggestions for the latter (especially websites/online media as opposed to print, please let me know!). Issues have been added such as transgenderism, UBI (Universal Basic Income), and BLM. (Black Lives Matter).

In the strictest sense, you can only win a majority as either Labour or the Conservatives… but in all the testing I did for this, very rarely did either reach the 326 threshold by themselves.

United Kingdom 2019 – Improved Percentages

An exact carbon copy of the official 2019 scenario, but with improved percentage numbers – the base scenario uses a uniform swing but constituency polls have shown that this doesn’t produce accurate results. Numbers based off all publicly available Constituency and MRP polls, with some discretion used.

Download here: http://campaigns.270soft.com/united-kingdom-2019-5/

1982 – Glasgow Hillhead By-Election

1982 – Glasgow Hillhead By-Election

Glasgow Hillhead is one of the few Tory safe seats in Glasgow but this by-election comes at a tumultuous time for the Conservatives and Labour who have both fallen behind the SDP-Liberal Alliance in the polls. The vacant seat attracted the nation’s attention after Roy Jenkins, the de-facto leader of the SDP, decided to try and regain a place in Parliament through Hillhead. Can the Tories hold on to the seat, can the SDP get Jenkins back into Parliament or will Labour come through the middle and get a much needed boost?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Conservative – Gerry Malone
  • SDP – Roy Jenkins
  • Labour – David Wiseman
  • SNP – George Leslie

The 1982 Glasgow Hillhead By-Election marked former Labour Minister Roy Jenkins’ return to Parliament as de-facto leader of the newly formed SDP. The SDP, a centrist breakaway from the Labour Party, were performing well in the polls and at the time of the by-election, many considered Jenkins to be the Prime Minister in waiting. This changed just weeks later after the Falklands War and the revival of fortunes for the Conservatives. This campaign was an important moment in Scottish politics and in the history of the SDP.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

1997 – Wales Devolution Referendum

1997 – Wales Devolution Referendum

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997

Wales overwhelmingly rejected a devolved Assembly in 1979 by a margin of 80%-20% but after Tony Blair won the general election of May 1997, devolution was firmly back on the table. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are pushing for a yes vote and though they don’t think the plans go far enough, Plaid Cymru has reluctantly accepted Labour’s proposals for a National Assembly. Meanwhile the ‘Just Say No’ campaign is mainly made up of Conservatives but was formed by dissident Labour members, Carys Pugh and Betty Bowen, in the working class Labour stronghold of the Rhondda. They are less well organised than the establishment backed Yes for Wales campaign but are nevertheless confident of victory. Can the Yes campaign win in Wales or will the No side deal Tony Blair and his New Labour government their first setback?

Yes For Wales Campaign

  • Ron Davies (Labour)
  • Dafydd Wigley (Plaid Cymru)
  • Peter Hain (Labour)
  • Leighton Andrews (Labour)
  • Richard Livsey (Liberal Democrats)

Just Say No Campaign

  • Nick Bourne (Conservative)
  • Carys Pugh (Labour)
  • Betty Bowen (Labour)
  • Tim Williams (Labour)
  • Robert Hodge (Conservative)

Devolution in Wales and Scotland celebrates its twentieth anniversary this year and for Wales, this campaign is where it started. The campaign was hard fought and in the end, the Yes campaign clinched victory by the slimmest of margins. Devolution is still a hot topic in Wales, with some wanting to restrict the powers of the Assembly and others supporting increased powers for Wales.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997

2016 – United Kingdom EU Referendum

2016 – United Kingdom EU Referendum

Click Here to Download the Scenario: United Kingdom – 2016

The growth of Euroscepticism in Britain has resulted in this referendum. David Cameron has sought to renegotiate Britain’s place in the EU but many think he hasn’t done enough. The battle lines are drawn and Britain’s political heavyweights are ready to tackle the biggest issue in British politics. Will Britain vote to remain in the EU or will they vote to upset the establishment and undo fourty years of European integration?

Vote Leave

  • Boris Johnson (Conservative)
  • Michael Gove (Conservative)
  • Gisela Stuart (Labour)
  • Nigel Farage (UKIP)

Britain Stronger in Europe

  • David Cameron (Conservative)
  • George Osborne (Conservative)
  • Alan Johnson (Labour)
  • Stuart Rose (Conservative)

Three years ago, the EU Referendum changed everything in British politics. The campaign was exciting, it engaged millions of voters and in the end leave won 52%-48%. Brexit has dominated British politics since that result in 2016 and this campaign was where it all started!

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: United Kingdom – 2016

1966 – Carmarthen By-Election

1966 – Carmarthen By-Election

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Carmarthen – 1966

Just weeks after achieving a substantial majority for the Labour Party in Carmarthen at the 1966 General Election, Megan Lloyd-George died of cancer. The by-election in the seat is proving to be much closer than many expected as criticism of the Labour government over local pit closures, rural issues and their treatment of Welsh speaking communities has added pressure to an already unpopular Labour candidate’s campaign. The seat has traditionally been a battle between Labour and the Liberals but Plaid Cymru are on the march in this largely Welsh speaking constituency and their President, Gwynfor Evans, is their candidate in the by-election. Can he pull off a historic victory for the Welsh nationalist party by going from third place to first and winning them their first MP or can Prys Davies hold on for Labour?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Labour – Gwilym Prys Davies
  • Plaid Cymru – Gwynfor Evans
  • Liberal – Hywel Davies
  • Conservatives – Simon Day

The 1966 Carmarthen By-Election was a pivotal moment in the modern history of Wales as it saw Plaid Cymru elect their first MP to Parliament. It is often considered to be a turning point in the political direction of Wales, with many maintaining that Plaid Cymru’s victory in Carmarthen laid the foundations for devolution in Wales.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Carmarthen – 1966

2019 – Peterborough By-Election

2019 – Peterborough By-Election

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Peterborough – 2019

After months of crisis in Westminster, all eyes are on Peterborough for one of the most important by-elections in recent history. The city’s disgraced Labour MP was forced out by a public petiton and all parties are now scrambling to take the seat. The brand new Brexit Party are on the march in this heavily leave voting Labour/Tory marginal. Can Farage’s party get their first MP within eight weeks of launching or will the main parties hold on?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Labour – Lisa Forbes
  • Brexit Party – Mike Greene / Nigel Farage
  • Conservatives – Paul Bristow / Stewart Jackson
  • Liberal Democrats – Beki Sellick
  • Green Party – Joseph Wells
  • UKIP – John Whitby
  • SDP – Patrick O’Flynn
  • Renew – Peter Ward
  • Independent – Fiona Onasanya / George Galloway / Femi Oluwole

Each of the main parties as well as some minor parties are included. There is a choice of three Independent candidates, Fiona Onasanya (the disgraced former MP), George Galloway (who intended to stand as an Independent left-wing pro-Brexit candidate) and Femi Oluwole (a remain campaigner who sought the endorsement of numerous remain parties to field a single pro-EU candidate).

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Peterborough – 2019

Norwich City Council, 2019

So while national politics tears itself apart and nobody knows what the local elections *really* tell us, here’s a less interesting local election in a city close to my heart, the home of Delia, the Canaries and Alan Partridge. Will Labour be able to keep control of Norwich City Council? Probably. Will the Greens, Lib Dems or Conservatives make any gains? That’s up to you! Enjoy

Norwich – 2019

 

UK – 2017 New Leaders

It’s what it says on the tin, this adds new leaders for both the major parties as well as some minor parties. In the near future I will add bios for the present leaders. I plan on adding more leaders, and diversifying the independent party (add minor parties and ideologically specific independents) sometime in the future.

United Kingdom – 2017 More Leaders

 

Updated: September 12 2018

Adjusts Leader attributes for Liam Fox and Hilary Benn.

Added David Cameron, John McDonnell, and Vince Cable.

 

London 2018 local elections scenario!

A new scenario from our neck of the woods! London has critical local elections coming up in just a couple of weeks time (2nd May: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2018 )

Can Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party inflict severe losses upon the Conservatives, led by Theresa May? The contest is heating up for several conservative controlled councils, with the Tories heading for their worst ever result in the capital city. Can Labour take the critical Tory councils of Barnett, Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea and Hillingdon and show that it is on the way to a general election victory? Or will Theresa May and the Tories hang onto most of their councils and take the steam out of the Labour steamroller? Will the Liberal Democrats be able to capitalise on the anti Brexit tide, or will it be the Greens or UKIP who become the 3rd party in London instead?

Last local elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014

A good night for Labour: Taking Barnett, Tower Hamlets, and at least three other of the councils. Inflicting losses of above 200 Councillors on the Tories would inflict severe damage on the Conservative Party.

A good night for the Conservatives: Holding onto all or most of their councils and (At worst) losing Barnett, but taking back Havering from the independents. Fighting off the Liberal Democrats in Richmond and Kingston. Losses of less than 100, or potential gains, would be a very good result.

A good night for the Liberal Democrats: Holding onto Sutton, winning Richmond and Kingston Upon Thames would show that the anti Brexit vote is in full swing

A good night for the Greens/UKIP: Winning anything at all.

Screenshots:

 

Click here to download this scenario: 2018-London Local elections