After the Parti Quebecois’ victory under Jacques Parizeau in the 1994 election and the triumph of Lucien Bouchard’s Bloc Quebecois in Quebec at the 1993 federal election, another referendum on Quebec independence was inevitable. The idea was initially unpopular and debate surrounding the referendum question and the style of the yes campaign lead to the referendum date being pushed back to autumn 1995. Parizeau has decided to go ahead with the referendum for October 30th and although the yes campaign is behind there is some expectation that Bouchard’s involvement in the campaign will give yes a boost. Will the no side hold on or will the yes side realise their long held dream?
Le Comité National du OUI
Premier Jacques Parizeau MNA (Parti Quebecois)
Hon. Lucien Bouchard MP (Bloc Quebecois)
Mr. Mario Dumont MNA (Action Democratique du Quebec)
Comité des Québécoises et des Québécois pour le NON
Hon. Daniel Johnson MNA (Parti Liberal du Quebec)
P.M. Jean Chretien MP (Liberal Party of Canada)
Hon. Jean Charest MP (Progressive Conservative Party of Canada)
After 9 years of power the Liberal Party of Quebec faces one of the greatest political crisis Canada ever saw. The students of Quebec are fighting against the raise of tuitons fees of 1625$ to an unprecedent amount of 3946$ per year. The pro independence Parti Québécois which leads the Official Oppositon and which faced one of its most historic crush in opinion polls took the side of the students like Quebec Solidaire. The new Coalition Avenir Quebec -a nationalist party- which started high in polls and led by the former pequist minister François Legault is now third in opinion polls and the Liberal Party faces the lowest opinion polls never received due to the scandals of corruption and the student crisis.
Can the PQ uses this crisis and at its benefit? Can the CAQ moves back first in opinion polls? Can the LPQ return the crisis at its benefit? Even more, the independentists of Quebec are now divided. The new Option Nationale -extremely independendist- and led by the former Pequist MP Jean Martin Aussant is winning supports among youngs, and Quebec Solidaire -also independentist- is increasing its supports. Despite the strategic vote, can they take votes to the Left, and essentially, the Parti Quebecois? Can the Parti Quebecois stops their expansion? The divided race is now open!
-Dissolution asked by Jean Charest
-The Student Crisis
-Jean Charest: Pauline Marois wants a referendum on sovereignty!
-François Legault makes huge gains among independent voters
Here is the New Brunswick 2014 general election in which the real result was that the Liberals won a reasonably narrow majority and made the Alward government the second in a row, and second in provincial history, to only serve one term.
Having rather caught the bug for scenario making, I moved on to Manitoba and present here a scenario for the 2016 general election in which the Progressive Conservatives defeated the NDP government.
Feedback of all sorts gratefully received, particularly with regards to issues and endorsers as I am sure there people out there with far more knowledge than I as to the intricacies of Manitoba politics.
A week or so ago, I thought I would try my hand at making a map and a scenario for PMI Canada, with the result being a scenario for Prince Edward Island’s 2015 general election, found below.
Any and all feedback anyone has to offer would be very helpful and very gratefully received – the issues are just the basic ones from the Canadian federal scenarios with those only relevant to the federal government removed and the only local endorsers I have are the two newspapers from Charlottetown and Summerside so any help there would be great!
Change is in the air. Ontarians have grown tired of the Liberals after 15 years in office. The Tories have just finished a tumultuous leadership race to replace the disgraced former leader, Patrick Brown. Can they maintain their 20 point lead or will Kathleen Wynne defy the odds and win re-election? It is Andrea Horwathís third election as NDP leader. Can the New Democrats capitalise on the unpopularity of the Liberals and chaos in the Conservative Party or will they remain the third party? It is far from certain who will lead the next government and if it will be a minority or majority government.
During their term in office, the Liberals regularly polled above 50%. However, recent labour disputes with the NSTU has resulted in a slip in Liberal support. There are now talks about the possibility of Liberal minority or even a change in government. Can Stephen McNeil reverse these trends or will he be the leader of second one term government in recent history?
Four years after sweeping to power, the Dexter led NDP are fighting for their political lives. Public disenchantment with business-friendly subsidies, a broken no tax increase promise and an MLA expense scandal has made this election an up hill battle for the incumbent New Democrats.