The PM has managed to get a longer extension of Article 50 in order to hold a general election. Can a majority for any withdrawal agreement be formed out of the next parliament?
This is an updated version of the hypothetical election this year. With more leaders, events and parties than before, and polling brought up to date. Please enjoy, and report back any problems so I can improve it!
In 2018, change is the keyword for the Quebec election. After being in power for 13 of the last 15 years (and the last 4 years), the incumbent Liberal party (PLQ) suffers from low approval ratings . Since autumn 2017, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), with François Legault as leader, has been ahead of the PLQ in almost all the polls, with the Parti Québécois (PQ) – currently the official opposition – significantly behind them in third. Quebec Solidaire (QS), meanwhile, has merged with the independentist party Option Nationale, and is in fourth. It seems to be a two-way race between CAQ and PLQ, but with a lot of undecideds, the result is nowhere near certain. Will the CAQ be able to maintain its lead without alienating its base? Will the PLQ be able to win despite a historically low approval rate? Will the PQ be able to buck the trend and to keep its current seats, or even increase them? And finally, will QS be able to finally gain a seat outside Montreal?
Events :
Gertrude Bourdon announces she will run with PLQ, not CAQ
Le Bouyonec to resign, Eric Caire in trouble over a loan
Lisée won the Radio Canada debate
Manon Massé is impressive
Legault considered as unclear on immigration
Lisée asks Massé who rules Quebec solidaire during the third debate, the question is considered out of the corner by the animator
Medias start seeking who rules Quebec Solidaire
Premier Philippe Couillard under controversy : He tells a complete family can live with 75 canadian dollars by week.
Quebecers tell they want change
Here is a video like always from the party which won the election:
Having failed to win the support of parliament for the PM’s Brexit deal, the Conservative minority government is now on the verge of collapse. But can a general election break the deadlock?
Starting on the 11th of December with Theresa May’s defeat in the Commons, this is an updated version of the 2019 General Election. The polling hasn’t been updated (still Sept. 2018) but some of the parliamentary candidates have been updated from ConservativeHome, LabourList and a Lib Dem blog, (thanks Joe).
New Conservative leaders – Gove and Morgan (as well as May). New Labour leader – Umunna (as well as Corbyn and Thornberry). There’s also a few other updates based on feedback, and a slightly more realistic narrative (though still not a likely one!). Hope you enjoy.
Herschel
Hi everyone! Here is a link to a scenario I made about last year’s election in New Zealand. This was very hard to make, since in New Zealand most of the Labour Party’s seats are list seats, and we do not have MMP or (Yet) preferences, unlike in real life, so it was difficult to make this. However, I came up with a solution, which was to add some MPs as a top up for the parties (To make up for a lack of a proportional list system) and as a result the scenario works perfectly. Try it out and see how you find it. I also added the Maori electorates as in real life.
Once we have preferences, or indeed MMP, I will update this scenario and add in the new electoral dynamics.
There also seems to be an error with high scores at the end, which I would like to correct, if someone can help me with finding out the reason for it?
Description:
“Note: preferences will be added in a future release.
After taking control of the Labour Party, Jacinda Ardern has shown herself to be a formidable campaigner. Can she lead Labour back into government or will Bill English and the Nationals win this hotly contested election?
This simulation uses a unique electoral system where, in addition to the Maori electorates, everyone will also have a list vote for list MPs on the North and South Island, and smaller parties are given list seats to reflect their vote share.”
Screenshots:
Download here: NZ2017
The Conservative minority government has announced that no deal has been reached with the EU just over two months before the Article 50 deadline. Without a majority for any kind of Brexit deal in parliament, it is time for the British public to return to the polls and break the Brexit deadlock once and for all.
The balance of seats is actually taken from polling in September 2018 but is not implausible.
New leaders since 2017 – Sian Berry, Adam Price and Mary Lou MacDonald. Some possible leaders – James Cleverly, Emily Thornberry and Layla Moran…
The tendency towards two party politics also means that three campaigners are available to the Conservative and Labour leaders, representing their most senior allies. Facebook and Twitter have been added to the endorsers, as social media advertising is influential.
In preparation for a possible addition of the Preference vote for Australia, I’ve decided to port over some of the old Australia scenario’s from the earlier PMI, PM4E versions.
I am porting the 2010 – Australia House of Representatives.
Major differences from the original scenario;
This will be updated should the preferences system be finalized to take into account the new feature.
I have updated the 2013 election file also to include a logo for the AEC.
It’s what it says on the tin, this adds new leaders for both the major parties as well as some minor parties. In the near future I will add bios for the present leaders. I plan on adding more leaders, and diversifying the independent party (add minor parties and ideologically specific independents) sometime in the future.
United Kingdom – 2017 More Leaders
Updated: September 12 2018
Adjusts Leader attributes for Liam Fox and Hilary Benn.
Added David Cameron, John McDonnell, and Vince Cable.
In preparation for a possible addition of the Preference vote for Australia, I’ve decided to port over some of the old Australia scenario’s from the earlier PMI, PM4E versions.
I start with the 2013 – Australia House of Representatives.
Major differences from the original scenario;
This will be updated should the preferences system be finalized to take into account the new feature.
1995 – Quebec Independence Referendum
Click Here to Download the Scenario: Quebec – 1995 Referendum
After the Parti Quebecois’ victory under Jacques Parizeau in the 1994 election and the triumph of Lucien Bouchard’s Bloc Quebecois in Quebec at the 1993 federal election, another referendum on Quebec independence was inevitable. The idea was initially unpopular and debate surrounding the referendum question and the style of the yes campaign lead to the referendum date being pushed back to autumn 1995. Parizeau has decided to go ahead with the referendum for October 30th and although the yes campaign is behind there is some expectation that Bouchard’s involvement in the campaign will give yes a boost. Will the no side hold on or will the yes side realise their long held dream?
Le Comité National du OUI
Comité des Québécoises et des Québécois pour le NON
Replies and Feedback Welcome
Click Here to Download the Scenario: Quebec – 1995 Referendum
1997 – Welsh Devolution Referendum
Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997 Referendum
Wales overwhelmingly rejected a devolved assembly in 1979 by a margin of 80%-20%. After Tony Blair won the general election of May 1997, part of his vision for a ‘New Britain’ includes devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales. Scotland is very likely to accept both a Parliament and tax raising powers for a devolved parliament but Wales tends to be more sceptical of devolution. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are pushing hard for a yes vote and Plaid Cymru has reluctantly accepted Labour’s proposals even though they don’t think the plans go far enough. Meanwhile the no campaign is mainly made up of Conservatives but was formed by dissident Labour members, Carys Pugh and Betty Bowen, in the working class Labour stronghold of the Rhondda. They are less well organised than the establishment backed yes campaign but are nevertheless confident of victory. Can the yes campaign win in Wales or will the no side deal the first blow to Tony Blair and his New Labour government?
Yes For Wales Campaign
Just Say NO Campaign
Replies and Feedback Welcome
Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997 Referendum