Bahamas – 2017

Bahamas – 2017

After 5 years in government, the ruling Progressive Liberal Party remains deeply unpopular with the Bahamian electorate. Allegations of corruption, and a high level of mistrust from Bahamian voters, continue to dog the party as the general election approaches. On the other hand, the opposition Free National Movement continues to struggle with internal disarray as their candidate for the general election, the Hon. Hubert Minnis, recently lost a vote of no confidence to remain as the sitting Leader of the Opposition in the House Of Assembly. Can the FNM quiet their internal struggles to proceed as a unified party into the upcoming election, or will the PLP win another 5 years of governance?

Scenario Features Include :

  • Bahamian Political Parties :
    • Free National Movement
    • Progressive Liberal Party
    • Democratic National Alliance
    • Bahamas Constitutional Party
    • Independents
    • Parliamentary Commissioner (Observer)
  • Bahamian Political Leaders :
    • Free National Movement :
      • Hon. Hubert Minnis
      • Hon. Loretta Butler-Turner
      • Fmr. Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham
      • Fmr. Deputy Prime Minister Brent Symonette
    • Progressive Liberal Party :
      • Rt. Hon. Prime Minister Perry Christie
      • Deputy Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis
      • Hon. Alfred Sears
      • Hon. MoFA & Immigration Fred Mitchell
    • Democratic National Alliance
      • Branville McCartney
    • Bahamas Constitutional Party
      • Ali McIntosh
  • Variety Of Bahamian Endorsers
  • Noteworthy Bahamian Events
  • Bahamian Issues and Party Platforms
  • Map of the Bahamas with 2017 constituency boundaries
  • Observer Party
  • and much more!

Please feel free to leave any feedback, concerns, constructive criticism, or comments below. This is my first publicly released scenario, so any feedback goes a long way in helping me to refine my work!

Hope that everyone is able to enjoy!

Regards,

CPE (Caribbean Political Enthusiast)

Québec 1994 OUI AU CHANGEMENT !


After 9 years in power, the Liberals of Quebec are aweakened. Despite holding 88 seats, the Canadian constitutionnal crisis and the reject of Brian Mulroney’s Meech Lake accord boosted sovereignism in Quebec to an unprecendent approval support.

The Pequists, led by the very independentist Jacques Parizeau are expecting and willing to make big gains. A year ago, in 1993, the Bloc Québécois with Lucien Bouchard got 50,3% of the vote in Quebec and almost 2 millions votes, winning 54 federal seats and forming the official opposition in Ottawa.

The victory of the PQ has to be the second step of independentist walk, the third will be a referendum in 1995 on sovereignty organized by the government of Quebec. Can the pequists get the second step of the sovereignist walk to independence?

This election is crucial because the sovereignists can’t hold any referendum on sovereignty without winning Quebec’s parliament. The Liberals, without their historical leader, Robert Bourassa, are now led by the last Johnson, Daniel Johnson Jr.
His short term of a year as incumbent Premier didn’t give him the time to deliver a complete strategy against sovereignists but Liberals are up since spring.

The former Liberal youth president Mario Dumont has left his party and is now leading the Action Democratique du Quebec.
Can this young and fresh politician wins his seat of Rivière-du-Loup?
This francophone right-wing party is, for itself, unclear about independence.

The famour polemist and radio animator, André Arthur is also declared as independent candidate and wants to win his seat of Louis-Hebert, local polls give him a solid 27% behind the Parti Québécois.

Will the Pequist prevail? Or the Liberals? Or will the ADQ be able to win enough seats to become the King Maker in this crucial election for Quebec’s future? And what about André Arthur’s bet?

United Kingdom 2019 – Improved Percentages

An exact carbon copy of the official 2019 scenario, but with improved percentage numbers – the base scenario uses a uniform swing but constituency polls have shown that this doesn’t produce accurate results. Numbers based off all publicly available Constituency and MRP polls, with some discretion used.

Download here: http://campaigns.270soft.com/united-kingdom-2019-5/

Alberta – 2015

Alberta’s 2015 Provincial Election saw the defeat of the Provincial Conservatives by Rachel Notley’s New Democrat Party.

I’ve remade the Alberta – 2015 scenario created by RI Democrat from the PM4E 2011 engine.

Polling data is the 2015 election results as taken from https://www.elections.ab.ca/ but I’ve added a polling shift to reflect a Mainstreet poll on the 7th April start date which puts the PC, WRP and NDP at a roughly even split (small WRP lead).

Can you win as the NDP and end the political dominance of the PC’s in Alberta or will the PCs retain power? Maybe The Wildrose Party will take the Conservative baton forward?

Israel September 2019 Election

While Netanyahu won earlier this year, he couldn’t form a coalition and thus called for another snap election in September as a hail mary in hopes of securing a majority coalition that will help him weather the corruption scandals engulfing his rule. The relatively young Blue and White alliance has rose to prominence last election as a united front of moderates both left and right to oppose Netanyahu and are now ready for round two, who will win in this decisive election?

Another update, some rebalancing, readjusted population numbers to be more accurate

http://campaigns.270soft.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Israel-2019-2-6.zip

1982 – Glasgow Hillhead By-Election

1982 – Glasgow Hillhead By-Election

Glasgow Hillhead is one of the few Tory safe seats in Glasgow but this by-election comes at a tumultuous time for the Conservatives and Labour who have both fallen behind the SDP-Liberal Alliance in the polls. The vacant seat attracted the nation’s attention after Roy Jenkins, the de-facto leader of the SDP, decided to try and regain a place in Parliament through Hillhead. Can the Tories hold on to the seat, can the SDP get Jenkins back into Parliament or will Labour come through the middle and get a much needed boost?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Conservative – Gerry Malone
  • SDP – Roy Jenkins
  • Labour – David Wiseman
  • SNP – George Leslie

The 1982 Glasgow Hillhead By-Election marked former Labour Minister Roy Jenkins’ return to Parliament as de-facto leader of the newly formed SDP. The SDP, a centrist breakaway from the Labour Party, were performing well in the polls and at the time of the by-election, many considered Jenkins to be the Prime Minister in waiting. This changed just weeks later after the Falklands War and the revival of fortunes for the Conservatives. This campaign was an important moment in Scottish politics and in the history of the SDP.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Canada 1993

Under Brian Mulroney, the PC party has governed Canada since 1984. A large recession, the fight over the GST, and the collapse of the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords destroyed Brian Mulroney’s final term. Kim Campbell has now been selected Prime Minister after Mulroney’s resignation. Now, Kim Campbell hopes to have a clean slate and salvage Progressive Conservative fortunes. But with an economic recession and Mulroney’s unfavorable policies still in voters’ minds, along with the rise of two strong regional parties in the West and Québec, will the new Prime Minister be able to hold off Chrétien’s Liberals?

Feel free to give feedback 🙂

1997 – Wales Devolution Referendum

1997 – Wales Devolution Referendum

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997

Wales overwhelmingly rejected a devolved Assembly in 1979 by a margin of 80%-20% but after Tony Blair won the general election of May 1997, devolution was firmly back on the table. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are pushing for a yes vote and though they don’t think the plans go far enough, Plaid Cymru has reluctantly accepted Labour’s proposals for a National Assembly. Meanwhile the ‘Just Say No’ campaign is mainly made up of Conservatives but was formed by dissident Labour members, Carys Pugh and Betty Bowen, in the working class Labour stronghold of the Rhondda. They are less well organised than the establishment backed Yes for Wales campaign but are nevertheless confident of victory. Can the Yes campaign win in Wales or will the No side deal Tony Blair and his New Labour government their first setback?

Yes For Wales Campaign

  • Ron Davies (Labour)
  • Dafydd Wigley (Plaid Cymru)
  • Peter Hain (Labour)
  • Leighton Andrews (Labour)
  • Richard Livsey (Liberal Democrats)

Just Say No Campaign

  • Nick Bourne (Conservative)
  • Carys Pugh (Labour)
  • Betty Bowen (Labour)
  • Tim Williams (Labour)
  • Robert Hodge (Conservative)

Devolution in Wales and Scotland celebrates its twentieth anniversary this year and for Wales, this campaign is where it started. The campaign was hard fought and in the end, the Yes campaign clinched victory by the slimmest of margins. Devolution is still a hot topic in Wales, with some wanting to restrict the powers of the Assembly and others supporting increased powers for Wales.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997

2016 – United Kingdom EU Referendum

2016 – United Kingdom EU Referendum

Click Here to Download the Scenario: United Kingdom – 2016

The growth of Euroscepticism in Britain has resulted in this referendum. David Cameron has sought to renegotiate Britain’s place in the EU but many think he hasn’t done enough. The battle lines are drawn and Britain’s political heavyweights are ready to tackle the biggest issue in British politics. Will Britain vote to remain in the EU or will they vote to upset the establishment and undo fourty years of European integration?

Vote Leave

  • Boris Johnson (Conservative)
  • Michael Gove (Conservative)
  • Gisela Stuart (Labour)
  • Nigel Farage (UKIP)

Britain Stronger in Europe

  • David Cameron (Conservative)
  • George Osborne (Conservative)
  • Alan Johnson (Labour)
  • Stuart Rose (Conservative)

Three years ago, the EU Referendum changed everything in British politics. The campaign was exciting, it engaged millions of voters and in the end leave won 52%-48%. Brexit has dominated British politics since that result in 2016 and this campaign was where it all started!

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: United Kingdom – 2016