Alberta – 2015

Alberta’s 2015 Provincial Election saw the defeat of the Provincial Conservatives by Rachel Notley’s New Democrat Party.

I’ve remade the Alberta – 2015 scenario created by RI Democrat from the PM4E 2011 engine.

Polling data is the 2015 election results as taken from https://www.elections.ab.ca/ but I’ve added a polling shift to reflect a Mainstreet poll on the 7th April start date which puts the PC, WRP and NDP at a roughly even split (small WRP lead).

Can you win as the NDP and end the political dominance of the PC’s in Alberta or will the PCs retain power? Maybe The Wildrose Party will take the Conservative baton forward?

Israel September 2019 Election

While Netanyahu won earlier this year, he couldn’t form a coalition and thus called for another snap election in September as a hail mary in hopes of securing a majority coalition that will help him weather the corruption scandals engulfing his rule. The relatively young Blue and White alliance has rose to prominence last election as a united front of moderates both left and right to oppose Netanyahu and are now ready for round two, who will win in this decisive election?

Another update, some rebalancing, readjusted population numbers to be more accurate

http://campaigns.270soft.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Israel-2019-2-6.zip

1982 – Glasgow Hillhead By-Election

1982 – Glasgow Hillhead By-Election

Glasgow Hillhead is one of the few Tory safe seats in Glasgow but this by-election comes at a tumultuous time for the Conservatives and Labour who have both fallen behind the SDP-Liberal Alliance in the polls. The vacant seat attracted the nation’s attention after Roy Jenkins, the de-facto leader of the SDP, decided to try and regain a place in Parliament through Hillhead. Can the Tories hold on to the seat, can the SDP get Jenkins back into Parliament or will Labour come through the middle and get a much needed boost?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Conservative – Gerry Malone
  • SDP – Roy Jenkins
  • Labour – David Wiseman
  • SNP – George Leslie

The 1982 Glasgow Hillhead By-Election marked former Labour Minister Roy Jenkins’ return to Parliament as de-facto leader of the newly formed SDP. The SDP, a centrist breakaway from the Labour Party, were performing well in the polls and at the time of the by-election, many considered Jenkins to be the Prime Minister in waiting. This changed just weeks later after the Falklands War and the revival of fortunes for the Conservatives. This campaign was an important moment in Scottish politics and in the history of the SDP.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Canada 1993

Under Brian Mulroney, the PC party has governed Canada since 1984. A large recession, the fight over the GST, and the collapse of the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords destroyed Brian Mulroney’s final term. Kim Campbell has now been selected Prime Minister after Mulroney’s resignation. Now, Kim Campbell hopes to have a clean slate and salvage Progressive Conservative fortunes. But with an economic recession and Mulroney’s unfavorable policies still in voters’ minds, along with the rise of two strong regional parties in the West and Québec, will the new Prime Minister be able to hold off Chrétien’s Liberals?

Feel free to give feedback 🙂

1997 – Wales Devolution Referendum

1997 – Wales Devolution Referendum

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997

Wales overwhelmingly rejected a devolved Assembly in 1979 by a margin of 80%-20% but after Tony Blair won the general election of May 1997, devolution was firmly back on the table. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are pushing for a yes vote and though they don’t think the plans go far enough, Plaid Cymru has reluctantly accepted Labour’s proposals for a National Assembly. Meanwhile the ‘Just Say No’ campaign is mainly made up of Conservatives but was formed by dissident Labour members, Carys Pugh and Betty Bowen, in the working class Labour stronghold of the Rhondda. They are less well organised than the establishment backed Yes for Wales campaign but are nevertheless confident of victory. Can the Yes campaign win in Wales or will the No side deal Tony Blair and his New Labour government their first setback?

Yes For Wales Campaign

  • Ron Davies (Labour)
  • Dafydd Wigley (Plaid Cymru)
  • Peter Hain (Labour)
  • Leighton Andrews (Labour)
  • Richard Livsey (Liberal Democrats)

Just Say No Campaign

  • Nick Bourne (Conservative)
  • Carys Pugh (Labour)
  • Betty Bowen (Labour)
  • Tim Williams (Labour)
  • Robert Hodge (Conservative)

Devolution in Wales and Scotland celebrates its twentieth anniversary this year and for Wales, this campaign is where it started. The campaign was hard fought and in the end, the Yes campaign clinched victory by the slimmest of margins. Devolution is still a hot topic in Wales, with some wanting to restrict the powers of the Assembly and others supporting increased powers for Wales.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Wales – 1997

2016 – United Kingdom EU Referendum

2016 – United Kingdom EU Referendum

Click Here to Download the Scenario: United Kingdom – 2016

The growth of Euroscepticism in Britain has resulted in this referendum. David Cameron has sought to renegotiate Britain’s place in the EU but many think he hasn’t done enough. The battle lines are drawn and Britain’s political heavyweights are ready to tackle the biggest issue in British politics. Will Britain vote to remain in the EU or will they vote to upset the establishment and undo fourty years of European integration?

Vote Leave

  • Boris Johnson (Conservative)
  • Michael Gove (Conservative)
  • Gisela Stuart (Labour)
  • Nigel Farage (UKIP)

Britain Stronger in Europe

  • David Cameron (Conservative)
  • George Osborne (Conservative)
  • Alan Johnson (Labour)
  • Stuart Rose (Conservative)

Three years ago, the EU Referendum changed everything in British politics. The campaign was exciting, it engaged millions of voters and in the end leave won 52%-48%. Brexit has dominated British politics since that result in 2016 and this campaign was where it all started!

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: United Kingdom – 2016

1966 – Carmarthen By-Election

1966 – Carmarthen By-Election

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Carmarthen – 1966

Just weeks after achieving a substantial majority for the Labour Party in Carmarthen at the 1966 General Election, Megan Lloyd-George died of cancer. The by-election in the seat is proving to be much closer than many expected as criticism of the Labour government over local pit closures, rural issues and their treatment of Welsh speaking communities has added pressure to an already unpopular Labour candidate’s campaign. The seat has traditionally been a battle between Labour and the Liberals but Plaid Cymru are on the march in this largely Welsh speaking constituency and their President, Gwynfor Evans, is their candidate in the by-election. Can he pull off a historic victory for the Welsh nationalist party by going from third place to first and winning them their first MP or can Prys Davies hold on for Labour?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Labour – Gwilym Prys Davies
  • Plaid Cymru – Gwynfor Evans
  • Liberal – Hywel Davies
  • Conservatives – Simon Day

The 1966 Carmarthen By-Election was a pivotal moment in the modern history of Wales as it saw Plaid Cymru elect their first MP to Parliament. It is often considered to be a turning point in the political direction of Wales, with many maintaining that Plaid Cymru’s victory in Carmarthen laid the foundations for devolution in Wales.

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Carmarthen – 1966

2019 – Peterborough By-Election

2019 – Peterborough By-Election

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Peterborough – 2019

After months of crisis in Westminster, all eyes are on Peterborough for one of the most important by-elections in recent history. The city’s disgraced Labour MP was forced out by a public petiton and all parties are now scrambling to take the seat. The brand new Brexit Party are on the march in this heavily leave voting Labour/Tory marginal. Can Farage’s party get their first MP within eight weeks of launching or will the main parties hold on?

Parties and Candidates: 

  • Labour – Lisa Forbes
  • Brexit Party – Mike Greene / Nigel Farage
  • Conservatives – Paul Bristow / Stewart Jackson
  • Liberal Democrats – Beki Sellick
  • Green Party – Joseph Wells
  • UKIP – John Whitby
  • SDP – Patrick O’Flynn
  • Renew – Peter Ward
  • Independent – Fiona Onasanya / George Galloway / Femi Oluwole

Each of the main parties as well as some minor parties are included. There is a choice of three Independent candidates, Fiona Onasanya (the disgraced former MP), George Galloway (who intended to stand as an Independent left-wing pro-Brexit candidate) and Femi Oluwole (a remain campaigner who sought the endorsement of numerous remain parties to field a single pro-EU candidate).

Replies and Feedback are Welcome!

Click Here to Download the Scenario: Peterborough – 2019