Premier Higgs called a snap election after negotiations failed with the other parties that would have avoided an election until the fixed date in 2022 or the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Will the election bring a majority to the Premier? Or will it lead to the election of another party? And what about the election as a whole in a full COVID pandemic?
Background
The twin effects of COVID-19 and a last-minute Brexit deal that satisfied no-one has polarised and divided British politics like no time before it. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s solemn promise to ‘Get Brexit Done’ was sufficient to hand him an 80-seat majority in parliament, which very quickly looked insecure with the triumvirate of the shambolic handling of the pandemic, the Russia Report, and good, old-fashioned sleaze and corruption.
Even so, it’s no simple task for a more centrist Labour under Sir Keir Starmer to boot the Conservatives out of office, despite the latter party’s abysmal popularity. Once a heartland, Scotland has increasingly become a single-party state in both Holyrood and Westminster.
SNP First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to agitate for a second referendum (especially post-Brexit) in order to rejoin the EU. In Wales, Plaid Cymru under Adam Price have been taking a similarly populist stance, and despite the principality voting with England to leave the EU, what was once a dormant and distant dream for independence has become a very real prospect. The two leaders, already on friendly terms, coordinate their efforts to ensure the UK election as a whole results in a hung parliament, thereby strengthening their collective hand.
The Brexit Party, their sole purpose fulfilled, have morphed into The Reform Party. Nigel Farage managed to agree a formal pact with Johnson that didn’t transpire on equal terms in 2019.
The Liberal Democrats, revived under the charismatic Layla Moran, reached out to Labour as one of her first acts in power that went much further than the ‘understanding’ enjoyed by Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown in the run-up to the 1997 landslide. Despite their low base of seats, Starmer was shrewd enough to understand he needed both the Lib Dems’ and Greens’ support to make the numbers stack up. The price for coalition was PR to once and for all bring the UK into the 21st Century, becoming a truly pluralistic, representative democracy in the process.
Usually out of sight and out of mind, the battles in Northern Ireland take much more centre stage than usual, with calls for a border poll to reunite with the south. With only Sinn Féin unaffiliated with one of the duopolies, every single seat will matter in the ultimate struggle for supremacy!
Notes
I have changed every single aspect from the base file of 2019, except the constituencies and Endorsers. If you have any suggestions for the latter (especially websites/online media as opposed to print, please let me know!). Issues have been added such as transgenderism, UBI (Universal Basic Income), and BLM. (Black Lives Matter).
In the strictest sense, you can only win a majority as either Labour or the Conservatives… but in all the testing I did for this, very rarely did either reach the 326 threshold by themselves.
The second Rutte cabinet, the first government to serve a full term since 2002, was formed after two rivaling and ideologically opposite parties joined each other in a coalition and in the proces got very unpopular in the polls. The election is setting up to be the closest ever with seven parties a serious contender for the win. This election also saw the highest number of participating parties in a general election ever. Will you be able to secure parliamentary seats with one of the newcomers or get a third victory in a row for Rutte’s liberal VVD? Will you be able to make populist Geert Wilder’s PVV the largest party for the first time or make the grand old parties of CDA or PvdA bounce back into power? Will you form the backbone in the next Dutch government? Prove it in this scenario.
Scenario Features include:
Embroiled in political scandal surrounding the fast tracking of the residency application for Anna Nicole Smith, the Christie administration is now up for reelection. Former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham has reentered front-line politics after a brief hiatus, and will lead the Free National Movement into the upcoming general election. The Bahamas Democratic Movement, a small third party option for Bahamians disaffected with both the PLP and FNM, will contest several seats as well. In addition to the Anna Nicole Smith scandal, voters will have to decide between the two parties on many other issues, such as economic policy, the financial services sector, and environmental issues among others. Will Bahamians be content with the steady economic growth of the past five years, or will political scandal and perceptions of poor governance mark the end of the Christie administration?
Scenario Features Include :
Please feel free to leave any feedback, concerns, constructive criticism, or comments below. I have redesigned the map due to difficulties in obtaining exact boundaries for Bahamian constituencies during this era.
A non-binding plan of action (depending on the amount of my personal time available) for further scenarios is as follows :
I do not want to mention any further scenarios due to the risk of overextending myself given the amount of time that it takes to produce these. There may be deviations from this list, but these are what I hopefully have time to produce in the coming months.
Hope that everyone is able to enjoy!
Regards,
CPE (Caribbean Political Enthusiast)
After 5 years in government, the Bahamian electorate is divided on Prime Minister Ingraham’s latest term in office. Growing Chinese influence, and a rising national debt in the wake of the 2008 Recession, have many voters unsure of whether they will back the Prime Minister for another term in office. The Progressive Liberal Party have rebounded from their 2007 electoral loss, and are set to challenge the Prime Minister on his most recent governing record. According to the latest polls, the race appears to be neck and neck with both the Progressive Liberal Party and Free National Movement vying to attract independent voters into their respective corners. A brand new third-party, the Democratic National Alliance, led by Member Of Parliament for Bamboo Town Branville McCartney has emerged onto the political scene following internal disputes within the FNM. Seemingly attracting a strong amount of support, combined with high voter frustration, will they spoil the election for either major party?
Scenario Features Include :
Please feel free to leave any feedback, concerns, constructive criticism, or comments below. Based off of feedback received from the 2017 scenario, I have reduced the costs of advertising.
Hope that everyone is able to enjoy!
Regards,
CPE (Caribbean Political Enthusiast)
Feel free to give feedback 🙂
Cuts to programs, a near miss in the Québec referendum, and a rapidly falling defecit have been the hallmarks of Jean Chrétien’s first mandate, and not all voters are happy about it. While Reform attempts to “break out” of the West into Ontario, the PCs and NDP try and rebuild from their disastrous 1993 finishes and the Bloc attempts to keep on despite the loss of Bouchard. Will Chrétien hold on? Prime Minister Jean Chrétien seeks his second term. The PC party, led by the popular Jean Charest, is hoping to rebound from its disastrous 1993 campaign. Can the Reform Party displace the Bloc and become the Official Opposition? Will the NDP be able to build a strong base in the Maritimes, and regain lost ground?
After 5 years in government, the ruling Progressive Liberal Party remains deeply unpopular with the Bahamian electorate. Allegations of corruption, and a high level of mistrust from Bahamian voters, continue to dog the party as the general election approaches. On the other hand, the opposition Free National Movement continues to struggle with internal disarray as their candidate for the general election, the Hon. Hubert Minnis, recently lost a vote of no confidence to remain as the sitting Leader of the Opposition in the House Of Assembly. Can the FNM quiet their internal struggles to proceed as a unified party into the upcoming election, or will the PLP win another 5 years of governance?
Scenario Features Include :
Please feel free to leave any feedback, concerns, constructive criticism, or comments below. This is my first publicly released scenario, so any feedback goes a long way in helping me to refine my work!
Hope that everyone is able to enjoy!
Regards,
CPE (Caribbean Political Enthusiast)
After 9 years in power, the Liberals of Quebec are aweakened. Despite holding 88 seats, the Canadian constitutionnal crisis and the reject of Brian Mulroney’s Meech Lake accord boosted sovereignism in Quebec to an unprecendent approval support.
The Pequists, led by the very independentist Jacques Parizeau are expecting and willing to make big gains. A year ago, in 1993, the Bloc Québécois with Lucien Bouchard got 50,3% of the vote in Quebec and almost 2 millions votes, winning 54 federal seats and forming the official opposition in Ottawa.
The victory of the PQ has to be the second step of independentist walk, the third will be a referendum in 1995 on sovereignty organized by the government of Quebec. Can the pequists get the second step of the sovereignist walk to independence?
This election is crucial because the sovereignists can’t hold any referendum on sovereignty without winning Quebec’s parliament. The Liberals, without their historical leader, Robert Bourassa, are now led by the last Johnson, Daniel Johnson Jr.
His short term of a year as incumbent Premier didn’t give him the time to deliver a complete strategy against sovereignists but Liberals are up since spring.
The former Liberal youth president Mario Dumont has left his party and is now leading the Action Democratique du Quebec.
Can this young and fresh politician wins his seat of Rivière-du-Loup?
This francophone right-wing party is, for itself, unclear about independence.
The famour polemist and radio animator, André Arthur is also declared as independent candidate and wants to win his seat of Louis-Hebert, local polls give him a solid 27% behind the Parti Québécois.
Will the Pequist prevail? Or the Liberals? Or will the ADQ be able to win enough seats to become the King Maker in this crucial election for Quebec’s future? And what about André Arthur’s bet?
An exact carbon copy of the official 2019 scenario, but with improved percentage numbers – the base scenario uses a uniform swing but constituency polls have shown that this doesn’t produce accurate results. Numbers based off all publicly available Constituency and MRP polls, with some discretion used.
Download here: http://campaigns.270soft.com/united-kingdom-2019-5/
Alberta’s 2015 Provincial Election saw the defeat of the Provincial Conservatives by Rachel Notley’s New Democrat Party.
I’ve remade the Alberta – 2015 scenario created by RI Democrat from the PM4E 2011 engine.
Polling data is the 2015 election results as taken from https://www.elections.ab.ca/ but I’ve added a polling shift to reflect a Mainstreet poll on the 7th April start date which puts the PC, WRP and NDP at a roughly even split (small WRP lead).
Can you win as the NDP and end the political dominance of the PC’s in Alberta or will the PCs retain power? Maybe The Wildrose Party will take the Conservative baton forward?
