After the Parti Quebecois’ victory under Jacques Parizeau in the 1994 election and the triumph of Lucien Bouchard’s Bloc Quebecois in Quebec at the 1993 federal election, another referendum on Quebec independence was inevitable. The idea was initially unpopular and debate surrounding the referendum question and the style of the yes campaign lead to the referendum date being pushed back to autumn 1995. Parizeau has decided to go ahead with the referendum for October 30th and although the yes campaign is behind there is some expectation that Bouchard’s involvement in the campaign will give yes a boost. Will the no side hold on or will the yes side realise their long held dream?
Le Comité National du OUI
Premier Jacques Parizeau MNA (Parti Quebecois)
Hon. Lucien Bouchard MP (Bloc Quebecois)
Mr. Mario Dumont MNA (Action Democratique du Quebec)
Comité des Québécoises et des Québécois pour le NON
Hon. Daniel Johnson MNA (Parti Liberal du Quebec)
P.M. Jean Chretien MP (Liberal Party of Canada)
Hon. Jean Charest MP (Progressive Conservative Party of Canada)
Wales overwhelmingly rejected a devolved assembly in 1979 by a margin of 80%-20%. After Tony Blair won the general election of May 1997, part of his vision for a ‘New Britain’ includes devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales. Scotland is very likely to accept both a Parliament and tax raising powers for a devolved parliament but Wales tends to be more sceptical of devolution. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are pushing hard for a yes vote and Plaid Cymru has reluctantly accepted Labour’s proposals even though they don’t think the plans go far enough. Meanwhile the no campaign is mainly made up of Conservatives but was formed by dissident Labour members, Carys Pugh and Betty Bowen, in the working class Labour stronghold of the Rhondda. They are less well organised than the establishment backed yes campaign but are nevertheless confident of victory. Can the yes campaign win in Wales or will the no side deal the first blow to Tony Blair and his New Labour government?
After 9 years of power the Liberal Party of Quebec faces one of the greatest political crisis Canada ever saw. The students of Quebec are fighting against the raise of tuitons fees of 1625$ to an unprecedent amount of 3946$ per year. The pro independence Parti Québécois which leads the Official Oppositon and which faced one of its most historic crush in opinion polls took the side of the students like Quebec Solidaire. The new Coalition Avenir Quebec -a nationalist party- which started high in polls and led by the former pequist minister François Legault is now third in opinion polls and the Liberal Party faces the lowest opinion polls never received due to the scandals of corruption and the student crisis.
Can the PQ uses this crisis and at its benefit? Can the CAQ moves back first in opinion polls? Can the LPQ return the crisis at its benefit? Even more, the independentists of Quebec are now divided. The new Option Nationale -extremely independendist- and led by the former Pequist MP Jean Martin Aussant is winning supports among youngs, and Quebec Solidaire -also independentist- is increasing its supports. Despite the strategic vote, can they take votes to the Left, and essentially, the Parti Quebecois? Can the Parti Quebecois stops their expansion? The divided race is now open!
-Dissolution asked by Jean Charest
-The Student Crisis
-Jean Charest: Pauline Marois wants a referendum on sovereignty!
-François Legault makes huge gains among independent voters
Here is the New Brunswick 2014 general election in which the real result was that the Liberals won a reasonably narrow majority and made the Alward government the second in a row, and second in provincial history, to only serve one term.
Having rather caught the bug for scenario making, I moved on to Manitoba and present here a scenario for the 2016 general election in which the Progressive Conservatives defeated the NDP government.
Feedback of all sorts gratefully received, particularly with regards to issues and endorsers as I am sure there people out there with far more knowledge than I as to the intricacies of Manitoba politics.
A week or so ago, I thought I would try my hand at making a map and a scenario for PMI Canada, with the result being a scenario for Prince Edward Island’s 2015 general election, found below.
Any and all feedback anyone has to offer would be very helpful and very gratefully received – the issues are just the basic ones from the Canadian federal scenarios with those only relevant to the federal government removed and the only local endorsers I have are the two newspapers from Charlottetown and Summerside so any help there would be great!
Change is in the air. Ontarians have grown tired of the Liberals after 15 years in office. The Tories have just finished a tumultuous leadership race to replace the disgraced former leader, Patrick Brown. Can they maintain their 20 point lead or will Kathleen Wynne defy the odds and win re-election? It is Andrea Horwathís third election as NDP leader. Can the New Democrats capitalise on the unpopularity of the Liberals and chaos in the Conservative Party or will they remain the third party? It is far from certain who will lead the next government and if it will be a minority or majority government.
A new scenario from our neck of the woods! London has critical local elections coming up in just a couple of weeks time (2nd May: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2018 )
Can Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party inflict severe losses upon the Conservatives, led by Theresa May? The contest is heating up for several conservative controlled councils, with the Tories heading for their worst ever result in the capital city. Can Labour take the critical Tory councils of Barnett, Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea and Hillingdon and show that it is on the way to a general election victory? Or will Theresa May and the Tories hang onto most of their councils and take the steam out of the Labour steamroller? Will the Liberal Democrats be able to capitalise on the anti Brexit tide, or will it be the Greens or UKIP who become the 3rd party in London instead?
Last local elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014
A good night for Labour: Taking Barnett, Tower Hamlets, and at least three other of the councils. Inflicting losses of above 200 Councillors on the Tories would inflict severe damage on the Conservative Party.
A good night for the Conservatives: Holding onto all or most of their councils and (At worst) losing Barnett, but taking back Havering from the independents. Fighting off the Liberal Democrats in Richmond and Kingston. Losses of less than 100, or potential gains, would be a very good result.
A good night for the Liberal Democrats: Holding onto Sutton, winning Richmond and Kingston Upon Thames would show that the anti Brexit vote is in full swing
A good night for the Greens/UKIP: Winning anything at all.
This is my first ever scenario! I have made a scenario for the Italian general election which occurred last week. Unfortunately there were a few glitches (E.g if you want to see an overall picture of the election in Italy you have to click on the black spaces between the electoral regions, otherwise for some reason it keeps showing the Piedmont result). Here are some screenshots and the download link. Enjoy!