Colombia 2018 Run Off

Colombia Presidential Run Off

2018 Colombian Run Off Presidential Election:

Change vs Establishment; War Against Corruption Vs War Against Terrorism; Maintain the Peace Deal Vs Destroy The Peace Deal.



After a hard-fought campaign in the first round, Sergio Fajardo won the We Can Alliance primaries, Ivan Duque won the Democratic Center-Conservative Party primaries, German Vargas Lleras from Radical Change Party was nominated, Gustavo Petro from Human Colombia was nominated, and Humberto de la Calle from Liberal Party/Party of the U won the primaries.

After the first round vote on May 27, Fajardo and Duque narrowly advanced into the run-off in June 17. Vargas Lleras endorsed Duque, De la Calle endorsed Fajardo and Petro called for abstention. Nobel Peace Prize winner, current and highly disapproved president Santos, who doesn’t want Democratic Center anti-peace stance in the presidency, is working to elect Fajardo (who favors the peace deal) as the next president, even thought they are not remotely close.

Although Fajardo brings stability to the economic class, the Democratic Center is trying to tie him to the evolving Venezuela crisis and collapse, for having made an alliance with the leftist Alternative Democratic Pole. Venezuelan collapse and neighboring Maduro’s regime atrocities are every day on the news. Both candidates disapprove the current government of Venezuela and call for immediate elections in that country, although Duque goes further and more aggressively.

Support varies among regions but the presidency will be decided in a dead-heat.

Antioquia, Caldas, Risaralda and Quindio the “Paisa Region”, is highly polarized in the run off because Fajardo and Uribe(and thus Duque) are equally and highly popular. Fajardo and Uribe were governors of Antioquia, and mayors of Medellin, the second most important city in the country. Antioquia’s natives colonized decades ago the departments of Caldas, Risaralda and Quindio, and they still share a common history, architecture, culture, accent and idiosyncrasy.

The North Coast/Caribbean coast/”Costeño” culture region: La Guajira, Cesar, Magdalena, Atlantico, Bolivar, Sucre, San Andres Isles and Cordoba. This region has the same accent and common traits with the coastal population from the different countries in the Caribbean like Puerto Rico, or Venezuelans. The “Costeños” consider themselves different than the rest of Colombians, some are pushing integration between them in order to get support for independence from the rest of the country. This region was Vargas Lleras territory in the first round, having won with more than 10% to 20% on the first round on May 27 in every department of the North Caribbean Coast, while Fajardo and Duque disputed the second place.  After Vargas Lleras narrowly not making it to the run-off, he supported Duque and as expected, Duque now leads in the North Caribbean Coast heading into the run off by more than double digits.

Central/Interior departments: Norte de Santander, Santander, Boyaca, Cundinamarca, Tolima and Huila. With the exception of Huila, who disapproves highly the peace process and supports Democratic Center as a party, there’s a dead heat in most of the rest of the departments because of the degree of high polarization between both campaigns, that represent very different priorities.

The Pacific Coast: Choco, Valle del Cauca, Cauca and Nariño:

Nariño and Cauca are heavily for the peace process and against the policies of Uribe’s party.  Valle del Cauca (with Cali the third largest city in the country) is leaning for the “We Can Alliance” candidate because it likes the corruption argument against the political class and supports slightly the peace process. Choco: Vargas Lleras territory in the first round, is in a dead heat because the high poverty is playing a double effect, on one side the political machinery is buying poor people’s votes, but the corruption-crisis in that department is such, that rest are clearly tired of the same old politics. This department favors heavily the peace process.

Llanos region: Arauca, Casanare, Meta, Caqueta, Putumayo, Guaviare, Vichada, Guania, Vaupes and Amazonas. The least populated region in the country has a high approval rating for Uribe’s presidency especially in Casanare, Caqueta and Guaviare, were the FARC terrorist group has caused great amount of damage with decades of war. The exception is Putumayo, which has a very negative opinion of Uribe’s party and policies and is heavily for the peace process.

Bogota DC: The capital of Colombia deserves a special place in the list. Bogota has always voted against the political class, for the “outsider”, the change “agent” and will likely support the candidate that rallies the young, which undoubtedly is the “We Can Alliance” candidate. Bogota heavily favors the peace process deal with FARC, making it hard for the Democratic Center to make inroads there, unless war becomes the priority again. A terrorist attack heading to election day might decide this evenly divided, close and heated election.


Colombia Presidential 2018 Run Off

Hungary Primer Minister – 2014

The 2014 Hungarian parliamentary election took place on 6 April 2014. This parliamentary election was the 7th since the 1990 first multi-party election. The result was a victory for the Fidesz–KDNP alliance, preserving its two-thirds majority, with Viktor Orbán remaining Prime Minister. It was the first election under the new Constitution of Hungary which came into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary’s transition to democracy, the election had a single round. The voters elected 199 MPs instead of the previous 386 lawmakers

Hungary – 2014

Note that the scenario will be updated once MMP is added to a 270soft game


Peru 2016 Election

After a decade of high growth in the Peruvian economy, a majority of voters claim they don’t feel the country is making any progress. Most of the growth comes from the boom in the mining sector, policies favoring foreign investment, but poverty remains rampant. The next president will face high poverty, insecurity and corruption, at the same time the coverage of basic necessities remains painfully short. Environmental groups and indigenous communities remain opposed to the current mining policies, which has and continues to be the engine of the Peruvian growth. The next president will have to diversify the country’s economy.

Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the Former President of Peru, Alberto Fujimori, both from Japanese descent, is now attempting to win the race for the presidency for a second time. In her first attempt in 2011, she felt short with 48,5% of the vote. After the election she begun the campaign for 2016, establishing a political party, with grassroots all over the country and traveling more than any other candidate in history. Her work payed off and after winning the first round of the 2016 presidential election with 40%, doubling the candidate in second place, she is closer to become the first female president of Peru. Althought her candidacy inspires and rallies millions of people who remember her father’s accomplishments, millions of others march against the possibility of the return of, what they claim, was Fujimori’s authoritarian rule. While President Fujimori remains in jail with widely known health problems, a majority of Peruvians according to all polls, favor in a large margin a presidential pardon. With incumbent president Humala favorability in the low 20%, Keiko feels vindicated and that her time has come.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski former Minister of the Economy and successful business man, will face Keiko in the run off. Kuczynski a right-wing figure in Peru, master mind of the current economic model, that has benefited the high growth of the country widely praised around the world, faces critics at home who say he is for the rich and the large corporations. After not making it to the run off in 2011, became one of the most vocal supporters of Keiko in an attempt to defeat the then radical-left-wing candidate Humala. Surprisingly, the 78 year old, made it to the run off with barely 20% of the vote, well behind Fujimori’s 40%. He is well-perceived and supported by the well-educated and young people. Kuczynski has labeled himself as the candidate of the “ones who want democracy to remain” alluding to the authoritarian past of Keiko’s father, which makes the 2016 Peruvian presidential election one of the most polarized, contested and watched races in history.