This is my attempt at a scenario. If you have any problems with it, feel free to revise it or comment.
(Based on an election game on alternatehistory.com – Account required to view)
What if top-tier candidates on both sides had decided not to run in 2016 and fictional candidates took their place? That is the premise of this scenario which is based on a President Infinity inspired election game on alternatehistory.com.
Will the progressive firebrand Angie Bennett pull off an upset to claim the Democratic nomination or will the establishment-favorites Katy Thompson and James Johnson romp to victory instead? Can the libertarian Democrat Carl Cisco Rutter use his charisma and telegenic appearance to move the party in a new direction and become the first gay president or will his campaign fail to gain steam because he bucks liberal orthodoxy on many issues? Is there any hope for the eccentric Governor of South Carolina Cornelius Benjamin Kennard to revive the party’s hopes in the South or will he simply act as a spoiler to Johnson and the liberal, black Governor of Missouri Martin Walker? Can Anderson and the Elliot Express sweep to an overwhelming victory in the Democratic primaries or is he doomed to failure? Do any of the lesser known candidates – Lopez, Maxson, and Turner – have any chance to break out and claim the nomination for themselves? And what if Steven Prentice Hart remained in the race, can he become the Democrat’s Reagan and usher in a left-wing, populist takeover of the party?
Can the House Majority Leader and staunch cultural warrior Francisco Juarez bring together evangelical Protestants and Catholics to win the GOP nomination or will he be foiled by the bombastic conservative David McIntosh, a member of the Freedom Caucus? Will neoconservative darling and McCain ally Kathleen Fairchild be able to follow in his footsteps and be the first woman to be nominated by the Republican Party or will the popular Admiral Kelsey Gormley stop her in her tracks and be the first general nominated by a major party since Eisenhower? Can Roy Buehler carve out a place for himself as a palatable moderate conservative and outspoken advocate for right-to-work or has the GOP base soured on nominating yet another moderate? Can former SNL writer and now Rhode Island Governor Charles Schroder win over GOP voters with his brand of libertarianism or will his “coastal elitist” image doom his campaign? And what of the outsiders Coxey and Zakharov – can they ride dissatisfaction with the Washington establishment to victory in the primaries or are their unorthodox positions too much for the Republican base to tolerate? What if Kasey Sungbean ran for president instead of challenging Steven Prentice Hart for CA Senate – can centrism appeal to the modern Republican Party?
Gov. Katy Thompson (D-MN) – Second-rate Hillary Clinton
Sen. James Johnson (D-FL) – Bisexual Bill Nelson
Sen. Angie Bennett (D-PA) – Rust Belt Elizabeth Warren
Rep. Jack Turner (D-LA) – Heir to Jesse Jackson
Rep. Edward Maxson (D-OH) – Midwestern Populist
Sen. Carl Cisco Rutter (D-OR) – Proto-Buttigieg
Fmr. Attorney General Antonio James Lopez (D-CA) – Castro 2016
Gov. Martin Walker (D-MO) – Corrupt New Dealer
Gov. Cornelius Benjamin Kennard (D-SC) – Kooky Bryan Cranston
Sen. Steven Prentice Hart (D-CA) – Steve Buscemi’s Doppelganger
Fmr. Gov. Elliot Anderson (D-MT) – The Elliot Express
House Majority Leader Francisco Juarez (R-CA) – Catholic Conservative
Gov. Roy Buehler (R-MI) – Fat Rick Snyder
Sen. Kathleen Fairchild (R-OH) – Neoconservative Queen
Adm. Kelsey F. Gormley (R-WY) – #MeToo Eisenhower
Gov. Charles Schroder (R-RI) – SNL Conservative
Sen. David McIntosh (R-AL) – Closeted Segregationist
Businessman Edmund Coxey (R-MD) – Not!Trump
Fmr. Gov. Maxime Zakharov (R-AK) – Russian Interference
Businessman Kasey Sungbean (R-CA) – Centrist Republican
Further to my 2016 Presidential Election in New Hampshire scenario, I decided to expand it to New England as a whole because the 10 counties in NH alone were too few to accurately handle the primaries.
This scenario allows you to battle 2016 in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont with state specific endorsers and accurate polling data for the GOP and Dem primaries (1 delegate per vote cast with 0% cut-off).
As taken from Wikipedia: The Republican party’s ticket has carried South Carolina in every election since 1980, and with the exception of Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale’s carrying the state in 1976, the Republicans have carried the state since 1964. In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan defeated Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden by a margin of 54% to 44%. The state has not had a Democratic Senator since Ernest Hollings retired in 2005. The state has had a Republican majority in the United States House of Representatives since the so-called “Republican Revolution” of 1994. However, some have suggested that South Carolina may become a battleground state in this election cycle because of Clinton’s lead in the national polling. A poll released on August 10 by Public Policy Polling had Trump leading Clinton by a margin of only 2 points, and an internal poll commissioned for the South Carolina Democratic Party had the race tied. This led Larry Sabato’s political prediction website Sabato’s Crystal Ball to move the rating of the South Carolina contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican” on August 18.
Here you have an opportunity to battle 2016 out in South Carolina;
Primaries – For the GOP, Dems use the official vote tallies for each county as delegates and turnout with a 0% threshold which provides a popular vote type system. Libertarian and Green (Delegate numbers are 50 per county as I couldn’t find specific data for the Greens/Libertarians in SC.)
Endorsers – The Governor, Sec. State, Senators and Representatives have been added to the default endorsers. (I removed Governors, Senators from other states to reduce overall numbers.) .
Counties – Counties have accurate populations, flags (where I can find them). Issue centres are the default SC positions for those counties that voted the same as the state overall while DEM counties have been allied to the DEM platform.
US Election 2016
This is an updated version of the 2016 scenario. It was updated by the Historical Scenario Commission on Nov 29, 2017. It can be downloaded here: United States – 2016v.1
The State of New Hampshire provided one of the closest races in the 2016 election with Hillary Clinton narrowly defeating Donald Trump. The results in Pennsylvania and Michigan meant that New Hampshire wasn’t as pivotal as it could have been.
Here you have an opportunity to battle 2016 out in New Hampshire;
Beta version – New Features;
Primaries for the GOP, Dems, Libertarian and Green (Delegate numbers are x10 from real life so the numbers provide more competition across the 10 counties, (GOP = 230 rather than only 23 across 10 counties.)
Endorsers – Newspaper interviewers added as endorsers. For those papers who endorsed candidates in more than one party these have been set as ‘Centre’. GOP or DEM only are set respectively as centre-right or centre-left. The Governor, Senators and Representatives have been added also.
The GOP seem overpowered when starting from the Primaries (I think is has something to do with the number of candidates in each primary, 8 GOP vs 2 DEM). For better results enabling more Democrats is a good idea. In order to counter the GOP bias issue, I have made all counties adhere to the default 2016 scenario for NH.
Feel free to suggest improvements and ways to counter the overpowered GOP.
Beta version. Feedback is always appreciated.
Thanks to Luki for the map.
With Senator Barbara Mikulski retiring, a crowded field of Democrats and Republicans has entered, who will win?