New York City Mayoral Election 12-15-17

new york city mayoral 2017 update 12-15-17

This is an update to my original NYC Mayoral Election scenario. Changes include:

  • Starting percentages equal to real-life results
  • Malliotakis moved to top of Republican listing of candidates
  • Richard Bashner added as “on” candidate
  • Robert Gangi added as “on” candidate
  • Michael Tolkin added as “on” candidate
  • Don Peebles turned “off”
  • All Republicans turned “off” except Malliotakis and Massey
  • Parties reordered
  • Turnout adjusted
  • Aaron Commey added as Libertarian nominee
  • Michael Tolkin added as independent
  • Sal Albanese added as Reform nominee
  • Independent parties renamed to Mayoral Lines
  • Primary percentages adjusted
  • Adjusted money coefficient
  • Removed Reform Party endorser
  • Modified primary delegates and turnout

Israel 1996

After the Oslo Accors and the assassination of Yitzchak Rabin the 1996 Prime Minister election will test how far the Israeli public will go for peace.

israel 1996

President Infinity 1796 Election

US 1796 Election

 

*This election was greatly updated by the Historical Scenario Commission on July 13, 2017 and on December 15, 2017. Download version 3.0 here: United States – 1796 Final

Background: 

With George Washington eager to retirement, numerous potential successors have been proposed to follow the “Father of our Country” as the next president. While John Adams is the presumed heir, many critics of the Washington administration have proposed Thomas Jefferson, a major of Hamilton’s economic policies and John Jay’s treaty with Great Britain.

Dominating this election are the events in Europe, predominately the French Revolution, which hampers trade and commerce abroad, and potential stability domestically, as the elites fear an uprising by the masses in America. A new Revolution at home was a realistic enough supposition that even former anti-Federalist Patrick Henry converted to the Federalist Party, as he feared a populist revolt.

The John Jay Treaty is arguably the major issue of the election. This treaty probably prevented a new war with Britain, solidified our Western frontier, and somewhat strengthened relations with our former cousins, but to many it did not go far enough–lacking compensation for sunken American ships and impressed sailors by the British. The Jeffersonian Republicans also saw the treaty as a direct violation of our alliance with France; although, Federalists declared the alliance over after the French executed their king and declared a new government.

Additionally, a new figure–Napoleon Bonaparte–dominates the headlines, who could determine if America leans pro-British or pro-French.

What really happened?

John Adams was expected to follow Washington into office, but it was understood that he would face real opposition, unlike with Washington. Adams had believed that Thomas Jefferson, Alexander Hamilton, George Clinton, John Jay, and Patrick Henry were his likely competitors, but of these only Jefferson, and to a lesser extent, Burr, posed any real threat. Federalists had decided to lead their support for Adams, except for a failed attempt by Hamilton to get Thomas Pinckney elected over John Adams.

For the the Republicans, Madison and others had convinced Jefferson, who pretended to be reluctant to return to public life, to run for president against his close friend, John Adams. Just as the Federalists needed a Southerner to balance their ticket, the Republicans needed a Northerner, and naturally New York carried the most weight. Rather than going with the usual George Clinton–who had just lost reelection for governor of New York to John Jay–Republicans opted to favor young Aaron Burr.

This election followed the old rules which required Electors to cast two votes, one presumably for president and one for vice president. However, electors didn’t strictly vote along party lines, and many Federalists voted for candidates that weren’t Adams or Pinckney. As such, while John Adams won the election, Thomas Jefferson became his vice president, rather than Thomas Pinckney.

Need a Suggestion as to who to play as? Try an win as these candidates:

  • Can defeat John Adams and begin the Jefferson presidency four years earlier?
  • Play as Thomas Pinckney and ensure that you become Adams’s VP.
  • Play as Aaron Burr and outmaneuver Jefferson as the Republican option
  • Play as John Jay and replaced Adams as the Federalist option
  • Seek revenge for George Clinton and beat out Aaron Burr as the major Republican of New York
  • Play as one of many “minor candidates” such as Samuel Adams, Oliver Ellsworth, John Henry, James Iredell, Samuel Johnston, and future two-time Federalist nominee Charles Coatesworth Pinckney.
  • Play as one of several What-if candidates (see below)

What if these candidates had launched a campaign? 

  • What if George Washington ran for a 3rd term?
  • What if Alexander Hamilton had opted to follow Washington into office?
  • What if James Madison had asserted himself into presidential politics earlier?
  • What if James Monroe, leader of the more conservative faction of Republicans, had decided to run earlier?
  • What if recently converted Federalist Patrick Henry had decided to run?
  • What if the recent debt-ridden “Financier of the Revolution” Robert Morris had run to repair his reputation?

Feedback is desired.

President Infinity 1792 Election

 

US 1792 Election

[Note: This scenario has been greatly updated by the Historical Scenario Commission on July 11, 2017 and on December 12, 2017.]

Download Version 3.0 here: United States – 1792 Final

Background:

President Washington, used to myth-like idolization, is incurring the first vocal criticism of his life since his defeat at the Battle of Long Island in 1776, nearly 16 years ago. The brunt of his criticism comes from Washington’s efforts to centralize government power, predominately through his open adopts of the economic policies of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton. Additionally, Hamilton’s advice has taken clear precedents over the advice of ideological rival Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson, who is becoming increasingly isolated and disgruntled. In fact, the followers of Hamilton are monopolizing the offices of the Washington administration.

Part of Washington’s Federalist’s leanings involves foreign affairs. Their official ally France is undergoing a revolution of extreme violence, which not only disrupts trade, but threatens the establishment with fears of such violence occurring in America. Washington, like Hamilton, sees a return to a closer relationship with Britain as the best change for financial and governmental stability. Here, Jefferson is the odd man out again, as he favors closer ties with the French. In short, Hamilton is nullifying Jefferson’s influence at the State Department.

Hamilton’s influence has led to the formulation of political parties. Those favoring Hamilton’s pro-business, pro-industrialization, pro-bank, pro-centralizing government are known as the Federalists. US Rep. James Madison has recently organized politicians opposed to most or all of these Federalist ideals and has elevated the more charismatic Thomas Jefferson as the leader of this opposition. In the North, George Clinton and Aaron Burr lead a Northern variety of this Jeffersonian Republicanism, which aims to appeal to the people, rather than to elitist authority.

Despite this, Washington is still popular and seen as indispensable. Personally, he wishes to retire, but both Federalists and Jeffersonian Republicans urge Washington to run for a second term as the country eases into a relationship with a home-grown federal government.

As such, Washington is expected to win unanimously once again. The real race is for the vice presidency, and the occasional quasi-monarchist comments by John Adams makes the incumbent VP open to attack by Republicans, who hope to elevate Northern Republican NY Gov. George Clinton to the position.

What really happened?

As expected, Washington won a vote from every delegate. The delegates had a harder time considering their chose for VP, but as was probably likely, Adams won reelection, but at a much smaller margin than he had won by in 1788/1789. George Clinton made a respectable showing, and Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr receives some token votes.

Need a Suggestion as to who to play as? Try an win as these candidates:

  • Play as George Clinton and see if you can upset the Federalist dominance of the executive branch by defeating John Adams.
  • Play as John Adams and see if you can win every electoral vote, tying Washington, and sending the election to the house.
  • Play as Thomas Jefferson or Aaron Burr to see if you can be a tougher rival than George Clinton was for John Adams.
  • Play as the Simulation Party and watch the CPU play through the election.
  • Why not play as many of the what-if candidates (see below)?

What if these candidates had launched a campaign? 

  • What if George Washington had retired and John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and/or George Clinton had run on the “presidential ballot”? [Note: For this use the Adams, Jefferson, Clinton candidates with a “(P)” next to their name, and make sure that Washington, and the default Adams, Jefferson, and Clinton are all turned OFF]
  • What if popular Rev War General Artemas Ward ran. Politicians were surprised with his natural political ability.
  • What if the aging Rev War patriot Samuel Adams ran as a Jeffersonian Republican alternative to his cousin John Adams?
  • What if Samuel Huntington, arguably the most powerful man in Connecticut, had run?
  • What if the impressive and multifaceted Chief Justice of the Supreme Court John Jay decided to run?
  • What if former Supreme Court Justice John Rutledge decided to represent the Deep South on the presidential ticket?
  • What if the famous Patrick Henry ran an opposition candidacy to John Adams?
  • What if Richard Henry Lee ran? Could he have a shot with flashier Virginians in the running?
  • What if future nominee, and former Rev War general, Charles Coatesworth Pinckney ran in 1792?
  • What if the ambitious treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton opted to join Washington on the ticket?
  • What if the “Financier of the Revolution” Robert Morris had run?
  • What if the leading voice of opposition in the US House, James Madison, had run in 1792?
  • What if the most vehement critic of the government, William Maclay, ran an insurgency candidacy?
  • What if the famed John Hancock positioned himself as the better Massachusetts man for the vice presidency?
  • What if Supreme Court Justice James Wilson, the only man to call for a popular vote at the Constitutional Convention, ran for the vice presidency?

Feedback is desired.

President Infinity 1788 Election

US 1788 Election

*Note: This election was improved and updated by the Historical Scenario Commission on July 8, 2017 and on December 11, 2017. 

Version 3.0 download here: United States – 1788 Final

Background:

The first presidential election take place amid uncertainty and chaos. Domestically, the country is struggling economically, as a result of a long war with Britain that has left the country somewhat crippled in production and trade, especially when you consider the bulk of our trade had been with Britain. The present Articles of Confederation, which binds the former colonies, has proved to be ineffective in the case of emergencies and in competing with European power.

As such, leading figures from each state had called a Convention in Philadelphia to amend the Articles of Confederation; however, the grand majority of delegates pushed for a stronger central government, resulting in a Constitution of the United States. One provision called for the election of a chief executive–the President of the United States.

As the election year of 1788 arrives, the several states are in the process of ratification, but some states are on the fence in regards to the Constitution. The more “radical” politicians, such as Patrick Henry, Samuel Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and George Clinton have been left out of the process. However, with the support of Benjamin Franklin and George Washington, and the authors of the Federalist Papers–Madison, Hamilton, and Jay–ratification seems more than likely.

In foreign affairs, a Revolution is brewing in France. While the possibility of a brother Republican is exciting, a revolution in France guarantees that trade with our new top trade partner and ally will greatly diminish, as the British are likely to block French trade.

This contest was really one for the Vice Presidency, as General George Washington, who had been president of the Constitutional Convention, was expected to win a vote from each delegate. As required from the Constitution at the time, the delegates would have a second vote to select the Vice Presidency. As Washington was a Southerner without foreign affairs experience, a pro-Constitution Northerner with foreign affairs experience was likely to become the next VP. This left John Adams, the first minister to Great Britain, as the frontrunner for this spot, since Benjamin Franklin, at 82, was too old, and John Jay was likely too young at 42. Those opposed to the Constitution turned primarily to NY Governor George Clinton.

What Really Happens?: 

As expected George Washington won a vote from every elector. John Adams, who was likely to win, was able to secure victory, arguably by a larger margin than expected, as he won more votes than all the other VP-candidates combined. This is most likely because New York was too disorganized to send electors, which cut the feet from under a John Jay or George Clinton ticket. Some argue that Alexander Hamilton might have schemed to prevent Clinton, an anti-Federalist, from entering the government and destroying it from within, even at the expense of fellow NY Federalist John Jay.

Need a Suggestion as to who to play as? Try an win as these candidates:

  • Why not try and disrupt the country’s attempt at federalization by joining the insurgency campaign of George Clinton?
  • Why not pick John Jay and see if you can take the VP spot, even without your home state sending electors?
  • Why not try and have the South lead the Early Republic by creating a Southern coalition to send John Rutledge to the vice presidency?
  • Why not use John Hancock, the former president of the Continental Congress, and see if you can rest New England from fellow Massachusetts man John Adams, and take the vice presidency for yourself.
  • Why not see if you can win every elector as John Adams, tying George Washington, and send the election to the House?
  • Why not “watch” the election as the Simulation Party to see how the CPU plays out the election?
  • Why not select one of many What-if candidates? (see below)

What if these candidates had ran?

  • What if the primary Declaration author, Thomas Jefferson, a leading critic of a central government, ran for the vice presidency despite a Virginian likely to win the White House?
  • What if popular general Artemas Ward ran? Is two generals too much for a presidential ticket?
  • What if Samuel Adams tried to upset his cousin’s candidacy for VP?
  • What if vehement critic of the Constitution, Patrick “Liberty or Death” Henry ran?
  • What if Benjamin Franklin ran? While 82 years old, it is possible he could have ruined Washington’s chances at winning unanimously.
  • What if James Madison, then 37, ran? Could the “Father of the Constitution” win?
  • What if the “Financier of the Revolution” Robert Morris had run?
  • What if William Maclay, a rabid critic of a central government, had run as another anti-Federalist?
  • What if Judge James Wilson, the only Constitutional delegate to call for a popular vote, had run?
  • What if Common Sense author Thomas Paine had not migrated to Europe in 1787, but stayed to take part in the Early Republic?
  • What if Henry Laurens, arguably the leading trafficker in slaves, had aim to take the vice presidency by creating a Southern Bloc?
  • What if Richard Henry Lee, a critic of a Constitution, had run?
  • What if ambitious general Horatio Gates had joined the race?
  • What if the celebrated artist, naturalist, politician Charles Willson Peale had run?
  • What if the “Father of the Bill of Rights” George Mason ran despite his provincial attitude and opposition to the Constitution?
  • What if the only Founding Father to sign all four major documents of the United States–Continental Association, Declaration of Independence, Articles of Confederation, and the Constitution–ran for the presidency? Could Roger Sherman win at age 67?

Feedback is desired.